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Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Last year's EPAC season was incredible, and I doubt 2016 will be anything close due to the dissipation of El Niño. However, I'm still excited to see another EPAC season, and I'm hoping for some interesting storms, as even in 2010 there were some surprises (Celia and Omeka). Plus this year may be more active then expected if it's true that the EPAC is becoming more active again as it does every 20 years or so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:32, December 29, 2015 (UTC) I think the 2016 Pacific hurricane season will likely be slightly below normal due to the possibility of a La Nina event, which usually inhibits Pacific tropical cyclone development due to cooler waters and more wind shear. If we are in a warm PDO/cold AMO as some are saying, 2016 will likely be close to normal in the Pacific. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 00:51, December 30, 2015 (UTC) September 15E.NEWTON AOI: Near Mexico This AOI has been on the 5-day outlook for some time now and is still only on the 5-day outlook, but there is an AOI near Mexico that has a 0/60 chance of development. This seems like it will become Newton. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:36, August 30, 2016 (UTC) : This is one with a real chance at Newton. Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for at least slow development, and I would say Newton should come by the weekend. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:06, August 31, 2016 (UTC) :: At 20% (next 48 hours) and 70% (next 5 days). Here comes Newton. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:22, September 1, 2016 (UTC) :::: This is likely to become a depression or Newton over the weekend and into next week. Hopefully it stays offshore of Mexico and doesn't recurve to a landfall. Ryan1000 03:08, September 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::: At 60/80 - Newton is arriving pretty soon! But the coast of Mexico will have to watch out... ~ Steve Chat :D 02:52, September 2, 2016 (UTC) 90E.INVEST Invested quite some time ago, but everyone's gone to focus on Hermine instead. At 80/90, but it's still having problems developing a circulation. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:40, September 4, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Fifteen-E And yet another depression forms. Forecasts call for this to become Newton before hitting Baja. Jake52 (talk) 00:24, September 5, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Newton And from a tropical depression in the first advisory to a tropical storm in the second. Newton, it must be said, is in pretty ideal conditions, and I hope that this doesn't turn too bad. It's currently not forecast to become a hurricane, although according to SHIPS, there's a 1 in 4 chance of this gaining 30kt during rapid intensification. Jake52 (talk) 03:11, September 5, 2016 (UTC) : It's got another day or so until it hits Cabo, it may intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane but I doubt it will pull something as bad as, say Odile. Still something to watch out for, since it's fairly quick formation may catch some people off guard. Ryan1000 04:10, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :As of the latest advisory, Newton is expected to peak at 70 mph, though that may change in the coming hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:20, September 5, 2016 (UTC) ::Newton's new advisory strengthens it to a Category 1, like some of the models show, but the worrying detail is in the SHIPS rapid intensification odds. According to those, there's a higher than 2/3 chance of Newton hitting Baja at borderline Cat 2/Cat 3. Jake52 (talk) 16:21, September 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::Maybe a re-Odile isn't out of the question after all...though Newton is also picking up speed and is now moving 15 mph, so it's window of opportunity for strengthening is going down. Hopefully it doesn't peak at more than cat 1. If it does explode to a somewhat strong storm before hitting Cabo, then this could be the 4th consecutive year with an EPac name retired (well, it became a record with 2 consecutive years of it, but still). Ryan1000 18:09, September 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Newton sure seems to be strengthening quickly. At this rate it could be a hurricane by the next advisory. Baja California needs to prepare for this storm. This is looking a lot like Odile, and that's not good. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:18, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Newton is now 65 mph and should be a hurricane during the next couple advisories or so. This storm is giving me flashbacks to Odile. If it for some reason starts rapidly intensifying, this could be devastating for Baja. In the long run, this might bring some flooding to Arizona. This is NOT looking good. ~ Steve Chat :D 19:10, September 5, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Newton And we ALREADY have hurricane Newton (75 mph/987 mb). Newton has officially rapidly intensified. Newton keeps looking better, and it could become a category 2 or even a major at this rate. This is becoming a dangerous storm, and people are hopefully leaving NOW. Unfortunately the EPAC is not being nice to Mexico lately... ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 22:13, September 5, 2016 (UTC) : It is 85 mph now, with a pressure of 984 mbars. Newton might be a C2 in the next few hours, maybe even by the next advisory. This is sure strengthening fast... [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 00:16, September 6, 2016 (UTC) ::: Now up to 90 mph, maybe major hurricane status isn't out of the question after all...but it'll make landfall sometime later today, Newton better get on with it if it wants to become a strong cat 2 or 3. Ryan1000 04:06, September 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::Happy to report that Newton's growth stunted overnight, it's still at 90 mph/80 kts and it's making landfall near Cabo as I type this. Hopefully it won't be too bad. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 10:42, September 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::::At least Newton's large size stopped it from RI'ing TOO much. However, it's large size means it will weaken less before hitting mainland Mexico. No damage is out of the question with Newton, but we can only hope not too many lives are lost... ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 12:41, September 6, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Newton looks scary. The storm's cloud mass extends from the tip of Baja all the way into Arizona and New Mexico, according to the NHC's satellite pic. Newton looks like a large flooder. I hope it didn't cause too much destruction.~ Steve Chat :D 04:04, September 7, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton Surprised to see no-one updated this, Newton is already dead and is currently over Arizona as a remnant low. NHC has handed responsibility over to the WPC. Unfortunately, Newton is responsible for the season's first fatalities, with 4 dead as of now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:03, September 8, 2016 (UTC) : Because advisories are still being issued on Newton (by the WPC), we'll keep him up on the storms header like we did with Hermine, since ex-Newton still poses a flood threat to the southwestern U.S. When the remnants fully dissipate, axe him. Ryan1000 00:23, September 8, 2016 (UTC) ::: And now they're gone. Ryan1000 20:33, September 8, 2016 (UTC) 92C.INVEST 92C.INVEST I'm surprised no one posted this yet, but there's an AOI south of Hawaii that's at 30% for 2 days. It probably won't become much though; Madeline, and to a Les's'''ter (lol) extent are more notable threats. 'Ryan1000' 04:54, August 30, 2016 (UTC) : This actually looks quite good now, and I think it's a tropical depression. Maybe this system will become Ulika. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:49, August 30, 2016 (UTC) :: Lol Ryan, nice pun. This has some potential to be Ulika, I would say. I hope we finally get a new named storm in the CPac! ~ Steve Chat :D 01:07, August 31, 2016 (UTC) ::: Still at 30%, but it looks better than what Atl TD 8 did yesterday. Dvorak classifications are at 2.5, which supports tropical storm intensity. ~ 'KN2731' {talk} 07:35, August 31, 2016 (UTC) :::: Back down to 20%. Not organizing and conditions are not looking too favorable. Ulika might have to wait. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:24, September 1, 2016 (UTC) AOI: About 1000 Miles South-Southwest of the Southern Tip of Baja At 10/20 but significant development seems unlikely due to upper level winds. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:27, September 1, 2016 (UTC) : This disturbance got sucked into what became Newton's circulation a while ago and is gone. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:29, September 5, 2016 (UTC) AOI: 1300 Miles WSW of Baja California This is an AOI that's been around for some time that's now in about the same place as the above AOI was, but more west. It has some opportunity to become a tropical cyclone, and has actually become organized enough for the NHC to up the odds to 30/40. This system has oddly been drifting east, but is expected to turn north and then towards the west soon. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:28, September 5, 2016 (UTC) : I see this AOI developing into Orlene during the next several days. After that, the below AOI could be Paine. The EPac keeps surprising us with above-normal activity despite the very late start. ~ Steve Chat :D 19:13, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :: 40/40 - conditions are now expected to become less favorable for development, so it now has limited time to become something. I will be mad if it stole the name "Orlene" and peaked at 40-45 mph. Best for this to remain a depression if it does develop. ~ Steve Chat :D 04:07, September 7, 2016 (UTC) ::: ...aaand this AOI is gone. ~ Steve Chat :D 02:28, September 9, 2016 (UTC) 16E.ORLENE Another AOI has been on the 5-day outlook for a while and is at 0/40. This could definitely become a named storm as well eventually. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:28, September 5, 2016 (UTC) : At 0/60 and looking much better to have hurricane potential than the above AOI. The other system at 40/40 is just going to enter unfavorable conditions later this week, so I'm crossing my fingers for this to be Orlene instead of Paine. We seriously don't need another epic name-stealer from the other AOI. ~ Steve Chat :D 04:10, September 7, 2016 (UTC) :: Up to 30/80 now. This is going to develop over the next several days and should be Orlene by next week. Hoping it's a hurricane - thank god the other AOI failed to develop. :) ~ Steve Chat :D 02:31, September 9, 2016 (UTC) ::: Wow, and it now up to 70/90. Orlene is coming!!! ~ Steve Chat :D 02:28, September 10, 2016 (UTC) ::::100/100, why is it not a TD!? TG 23:57, September 10, 2016 (UTC) :::::Come on NHC - is this not a TD?! I hate it when NHC puts 100/100 instead of declaring the advisory immediately since that chance means it almost certainly WILL be a TD. >:( ~ Steve Chat :D 00:45, September 11, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Sixteen-E ...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... NO THREAT TO LAND... Also this is the earliest sixteenth EPAC depression since 1992. I think we'll have 20 storms this year. Tropical Storm Orlene Well, we have Orlene now. Holy cow...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:56, September 11, 2016 (UTC) : Like I did with Madeline, I'm going to compare Orlene to the date we saw our 15th-named storm in the past four years: * 2012: Olivia - October 6 * 2013: Octave - October 12 * 2014: Odile - September 10 * 2015: Olaf - October 15 * 2016: Orlene - September 11. TG 19:43, September 11, 2016 (UTC) The Pacific is going fairly well-paced this year, on par with the last two seasons (though keep in mind last year the CPac had 5 storms at this point, and would go on to have 8 total). Orlene could become a cat 2 or 3 as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 20:41, September 11, 2016 (UTC) : The EPac continues to impress. I would have never expected the "O" storm this early with the very late start! :O Orlene is now set at the intensity of 50 mph and 1003 mbar, and forecast to turn into a hurricane. I hope it peaks as a Category 2 at least. ~ Steve Chat :D 21:32, September 11, 2016 (UTC) ::: Peak intensity isn't expected to be above cat 1 for now... Ryan1000 01:32, September 12, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Orlene And Orlene has become the tenth hurricane of the season, with winds of 70 knots and a minimum pressure of 990 mb, and looks on course to be the sixth major. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:09, September 12, 2016 (UTC) : Wouldn't surprise me if it does become a 3, maybe even a 4, this thing is intensifying fairly quickly. Ryan1000 09:57, September 12, 2016 (UTC) ::: Now up to 110 mph and 967 mbars. Due to become a cat 3 at any time now. Ryan1000 22:31, September 12, 2016 (UTC) ::::Down to 90 kts/971 mbar per ATCF :( Unless this pulls a Darby, our sixth EPAC major might have to wait. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:24, September 13, 2016 (UTC) ::::::It's moving slowly so Orlene is probably weakening due to upwelling over it's own churned-up waters, once it speeds up again later this week it might get stronger. Ryan1000 02:57, September 13, 2016 (UTC) :::::::The NHC just forecasts weakening throughout the rest of the forecast period; if right, our next EPac major has to wait :/ ~ Steve Chat :D 03:21, September 14, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::For what it's worth, Orlene briefly weakened to a tropical storm last night, but with the new advisory it has regained hurricane status. 70 kts/985 mbar as of 8am PDT. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:52, September 15, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Orlene (3rd time) First downgrade was missed. Orlene is going down against dry air, and should be gone within 24 hours unless it generates some convective bursts. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:01, September 16, 2016 (UTC) :Yeah, it's pretty much nothing but a cloud swirl right now.--Isaac829 20:55, September 16, 2016 (UTC) 93E.INVEST AOI: South-Southwest of Acapulco A brand new one has formed and is 10/60 on the TWO. This could be our next named storm over the long run. Hopefully it isn't Paineful to track (lol). ~ Steve Chat :D 03:24, September 14, 2016 (UTC) 93E.INVEST This was invested some time ago, and is now up to 60/90. Most models show this becoming a weak to moderate tropical storm, but notably the ECMWF shows this reaching extreme southern California. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:06, September 16, 2016 (UTC) : That would be unique to see in a lifetime, though forecasts over 4 days ahead are fairly unreliable; the Euro also eventually takes Karl to Bermuda as a 938 mbar category 4 storm down the road. Ryan1000 17:20, September 16, 2016 (UTC) :: At 80/90 and will be a TD and then Paine very soon. If ECMVF panned out, we could see some rainfall in our area. ~ Steve Chat :D 04:53, September 17, 2016 (UTC) Retirements at a glance We've had one in the Atlantic for a while now, but since the EPac has 10 storms (11 counting Pali), we can start this here too. Here's my calls: Ryan1000's retirement predictions EPac: *Agatha - 0% - Second-latest start for the EPac proper, but still failed. *Blas - 0% - A strong hurricane, but was a fishspinner regardless. *Celia - 0% - Weaker than Blas, and also a fish. *Darby - 5% - It wasn't a fail since it did make landfall on Hawaii as a tropical storm, which isn't very common and is unique for July, but if Iselle of 2014 didn't get retired, Darby probably won't be either. *Estelle - 0% - Almost became a hurricane (and could be upgraded in post-analysis), but otherwise meh. *Frank - 0% - Defied predictions and became a hurricane, but still didn't hit land. *Georgette 0% - Became a major briefly, but died faster than it strengthened and didn't hit land. *Howard - 0% - Moderate TS fishspinner. *Ivette - 0% - Howard 2.0. *Javier - 1% - Brought some minor impacts to southern Baja, but nothing severe. *Kay - 0% - Remained well away from land. *Lester - 0% - Still active, but missed Hawaii, so no. *Madeline - 1% - Brushed by Hawaii and brought minor impacts. *Newton - 12% - First hurricane to hit Cabo in 2 years, but it wasn't as powerful or damaging as Odile, and it's not as likely to be retired. CPac: *Pali - 0% - An extremely rare January hurricane, but remained far away from any land. There's my thoughts. Ryan1000 03:44, August 8, 2016 (UTC) TG's Retirements (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5)(Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z) EPac: * Agatha: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Agatha was a fail, nonetheless. * Blas: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0% - Blas was a nice looking hurricane, but it didn't affect land. * Celia: Grade: B-''' Retirement: '''0% - Celia, like most of the others, was a fish. * Darby: Grade: A+ Retirement: 5% - Darby made landfall as a TS in Hawaii, bringing minimal impacts. Darby also refused to die. * Estelle: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''0% - Estelle was another fail. * Frank: Grade: C+ Retirement: 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly but regardless, Frank was a fish. * Georgette: Grade: A++ Retirement: 0% - Georgette was a very strong hurricane, but she was a fish. * Howard: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''0% - Howard only brought rain to Hawaii as a remnant low. * Ivette: Grade: Z''' Retirement: '''0% - Ivette was a fairly weak storm, and it was a failed storm. * Javier: Grade: D-''' Retirement: '''1% - Javier only brought rain showers to Baja California. * Kay: Grade: D''' Retirement: '''1% - Kay affected some small islands, that's it. * Lester: Grade: A''' Retirement: '''5% - Lester will probably be a fish, unless it hits Hawaii. * Madeline: Grade: A++ Retirement: 5% - A pretty threatening storm overall, but impacts will probably be minimal. * Newton: Grade: C+ Retirement: 15% - 8 fatalities isn't enough for Mexico to retire Newton. * Orlene: Grade: ??? Retirement: 0% - Unless it manages to reach Hawaii, Orlene will be a fish. TG 23:08, September 11, 2016 (UTC) CPac: * Pali: Grade: A+++++ Retirement: 0% - Very nice start to the season, however, it was a fish. TG 12:05, August 8, 2016 (UTC) Ibahan1829's List of Retirement Candidates East Pacific: #'Tropical Storm Agatha': 0%: You tried again, Agatha, you failed again, Agatha. #'Category 4 Blas': 0%: It sailed the ocean blue. That's it not even a landfall, nope. The only hurricanes I prefer are these ones like Blas. #'Category 2 Celia': 0 again%: Good Celia, you kinda copied what you did six years ago and not hit land, not cause a fatality. As a bonus, you became an awesome annular hurricane at one point. Good Celia. #'Category 3 Darby': 0.5%: You tried, Darby, you thought you could copy Iselle. Even Iselle was worse for the Big Island than Darby was. See you sometime in 2022, Darby. #'Tropical Storm Estelle': 0%: So close to that, that 75 mph status. #'Category 1 Frank,' ' Category 4 Georgette,' Tropical Storm Howard: all 0%: Frank equals weak hurricane that did nothing, reached it's 2010 counterpart in strength. Georgette equals surprising, C4 monster that also did nothing. Howard equals meh TS weaker than Estelle, and did nothing anywhere, like Pali, Agatha, Blas, Celia, Estelle, Frank and Georgette that came before this. #'Tropical Storm Ivette': No%: Wimpy Tropical Storm that had much potential to become a category one, or even a good ole' two like Celia. But NO, it became a scaredy cat and be even weaker than even Estelle and Howard. Agatha had it's reasons not to do anything, but Ivette just decided to be lazy, to not even try. I'm moving on. Next! #'Tropical Storm Javier': 0.0000000000001%: First storm this year to REALLY threaten land. It barely did anything to the land except for some rain. Javier will stay for 2022. #Tropical Storm Kay: 0%: Did nothing. #Category 4 Lester: 0%: Did nothing, except for some Hawaii rain, maybe. #Category 4 Madeline: 0.5%: It threatened Hawaii, it missed Hawaii. #Category ? Newton: This currently category 1 hurricane will hit Baja California soon... Central Pacific: #'Category 2 Pali': I don't even need a percentage to give to Pali. This storm is what you call an Enigma. CATEGORY 2 MERE MILES FROM THE EQUATOR IN JANUARY!? Crap, Pali! Pressure lower than 980 makes Pali the strongest January Central Pacific hurricane since the dawn of reliable records(yes, this includes EKEKA 92). And, best of all, it existed right along with ANOTHER huricane in the Atlantic. This is practically a once in a lifetime event here. We might never get to see an event like this again in our lifetimes...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:52, August 9, 2016 (UTC) Steve's retirement predictions & storm grades: (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z) East Pacific: *One-E: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''A TD can be retired? :P - It failed to even become a tropical storm. The only reason it doesn't get a Z is because it caused impacts. *Agatha: Grade: D+ Retirement: 0% - Gets a large amount of credit for forming rapidly and unexpectedly, and for finally breaking the huge quiet streak. It did the best it can against the unfavorable conditions it faced, but was still a weak TS. *Blas: Grade: A''' Retirement: '''0% - An amazing Category 4 fishspinner. *Celia: Grade: C+ Retirement: 0% - Failed to become a major and barely peaked as a C2. However, it tried. *Darby: Grade: A-''' Retirement: '''5% - Gets credit for being a major, lasting a while, and becoming one of few storms to strike Hawaii. There is a tiny chance of retirement, but I doubt that will happen. *Estelle: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Estelle disappointed me by not becoming a hurricane. It isn't a complete fail, since it did almost reach hurricane status. But since it failed to become one despite predictions for it to do so, it gets a bad grade. It will be upgraded to at least a D if upgraded to a hurricane post-analysis. *Frank: Grade: D+ Retirement: 0% - Impressed me by becoming a last-minute hurricane. It did not become one despite predictions for it to do so until the last minute, causing its grade to suffer a little. *Georgette: Grade: A''' Retirement: '''0% - Amazing storm that RI'd at the last minute, but it barely scraped C4 status. The fact that it RI'd quite unexpectedly raises its grade a lot. I like the effort that Georgette put in during its life. *Howard: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Nothing special. It struggled with westerly shear and upwelling but despite those factors, it managed 60 mph, preventing it from being a complete fail. *Ivette: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''0% - Wow, just wow. Despite continued forecasts for a potentially big hurricane (at least C2), it didn't even become one at all. It still reached 60 mph, preventing a "Z" classification. Did that shear monster attack you, Ivette the scaredy cat? Haha *Javier: Grade: D''' Retirement: '''1% - Caused some impacts in Mexico and Baja, but failed to become a hurricane. It reached 65 mph, which proves that it tried. *Kay: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Exceeded my expectation of being an epic name stealer. So it gets an E, instead of F or Z. No land effects means no retirement. *Lester: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0% - An awesome storm that exceeded my expectations by a bunch. It lasted a long time, further upping the grade. It passed north of Hawaii and spared them a direct hit. *Madeline: Grade: A+ Retirement: 0.01% - This REALLY exceeded my predictions! It was originally forecast to be a C1, but exploded to a C4! Nice stunt, girl. It spared Big Island from a direct hit, but it might have still caused plenty of minor impacts. *Newton: Grade: C''' Retirement: '15% '- A weak hurricane that almost became a Category 2 before punching Baja. It caused 8 fatalities and was the only storm of the season to cause fatalities AFAIK. This might have a slight shot of retirement, but that chance is still very low. *Orlene: Grade: '''B- '''Retirement: '''0% - A strong 110 mph fishspinner, but too bad it didn't become a major. Central Pacific: *Pali: Grade: A++ Retirement: 0% - Damn, that was amazing. Extremely early storm and became a Category 2 as well, and it was very close to the equator. It could have gotten my highest grade possible if it became a major. No land effects, so no retirement. ''St''''eve'' 19:44, August 9, 2016 (UTC) ---- KN2731's storm grades & retirements Grading from A to F, retirements in multiples of 5. Eastern Pacific # Agatha: grade E''', retirement '''0%. Span up quickly and helped to make things more favourable for Blas, but otherwise failed. # Blas: grade A''', retirement '''0%. Nice annular hurricane that didn't affect land. Thumbs up. # Celia: grade C''', retirement '''0%. Made it to C2, but was quite ragged the whole time. # Darby: grade B''', retirement '''5%. Steadfast major that lasted 2 full weeks to Hawaii. But if Iselle 2014 didn't go, you're not going either. # Estelle: grade E''', retirement '''0%. If this doesn't get upgraded in post-analysis, I'll downgrade to F for not trying. # Frank: grade C''', retirement '''0%. Nearly failed, but became a last-minute hurricane. # Georgette: grade A+, retirement 0%. Beautiful. Just the type of hurricane I like. Could have lasted longer though. # Howard: grade F''', retirement '''0%. Failed to become the 8th July storm, unless it was found to be one earlier in post-analysis. # Ivette: grade F''', retirement '''0%. You chose not to rapidly intensify? What a joke. # Javier: grade E''', retirement '''5%. First storm to pose a hurricane threat this year, but failed eventually. # Kay: grade D''', retirement '''0%. Did what it could against shear. # Lester: grade A''', retirement '''5%. Another beautiful annular hurricane that kept restrengthening against the odds. Brushed Hawaii, but overall impact was quite minor. # Madeline: grade A+, retirement 5%. Defied the normally unfavourable conditions near Hawaii to become a category 4. Hurricane warnings were up at a time, but turned away without bringing major impacts. # Newton: grade C''', retirement '''15%. 8 fatalities, but not worth retiring. # Orlene: currently active, retirement 0%. Not going to hit land. Central Pacific # Pali: grade A++++++++++++++++, retirement 0%. No words to describe how amazing this storm is. Ultimately won't be retired though since Ekeka didn't go either. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:27, September 13, 2016 (UTC) Raindrop's Retirements (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Credit to Steve820) Eastern Pacific: *Agatha - 0% - It was a surprise that the system that became Agatha actually got named, but Agatha was short lived and weak, only a smidge above being a 40 mph storm. Agatha had no impacts either, so Agatha will stay. *Blas - 0% - Blas was a really nice major hurricane to track. It didn't last super long, more like average, but looked quite cool as an annular hurricane with it's large eye. Blas did not impact land either. *Celia - 0% - Celia was an interesting hurricane as it ended up developing a very large eye, much bigger then Blas's was. It's cool that it became a category 2 hurricane in Blas's wake as well. However, again, it just formed and dissipated along a straight track which gets a little repetitive. *Darby - 5% - Darby was an impressive and long lived storm that even managed to unexpectedly (but barely) become a major. Near the end of it's near 2-week lifespan it even managed to make landfall on Hawaii. Darby did cause some flooding, but it's unlikely to be retirement worthy. *Estelle - 0% - Estelle struggled despite somewhat favorable conditions and even though the NHC at first was predicting a category 2, Estelle couldn't even become a hurricane. Estelle did not affect land either. *Frank - 0% - Frank developed suddenly and advisories weren't even initiated by the NHC until it was already a TS, but then it struggled for a while, stalling in intensity as a 70 mph storm. However, just when it had weakened all the way to 50 mph and we all thought Frank was done, it made an amazing comeback and finally attained hurricane status, actually reaching an 85 mph intensity which is a step above a minimal hurricane, which was very impressive! Despite the earliest forecasts saying Frank could impact Baja California, Frank did not impact land in the end. *Georgette 0% - Georgette was an impressive storm, becoming a beautiful category 4 storm unexpectedly after a short stall in intensity. However, Georgette was short lived and actually weakened faster then it strengthened, never impacting land. *Howard - 0% - Howard spent most of it's short life as a sheared storm (a punishment for not getting named during July? :P), and was never able to strengthen much, then rapidly dissipated faster then forecast, which was lame. Howard had no land impacts. *Ivette - 0% - Read Howard. *Javier - 1% - Javier was a rather short lived tropical storm, however it posed a threat to land the entire time. At one point Javier looked somewhat well organized, and got somewhat close to becoming a hurricane, but when Javier neared land it got rapidly dissipated. Javier did cause minor flooding, but wasn't able to even make landfall. *Kay: 0% '- Kay was a moderate tropical storm that did not threaten land except for perhaps higher than normal surf, therefore it will not be retired. It tried somewhat and I think was a 60 mph storm at some point, unlike what the NHC said. *Lester: '''0% '- Lester was a long tracked and strong hurricane that in the end never really affected any land! Lester posed a small threat to Hawaii, but missed, and as a result it ended up being a strong fishspinner that refused to weaken for a while. Lester was a fun storm to track. *Madeline: '''0.01% ' '- Madeline was a strong hurricane but wasn't too long lived. It posed a threat to Hawaii, but shear destroyed Madeline and it missed as well. It scared people a little bit, so it gets a non-zero retirement chance because Hawaii did that once, but I doubt Hawaii would retire Madeline for scaring people, considering Iselle was not retired. Central Pacific *Pali - 0% - Pali was an insanely amazing storm that did not impact land! All the time we waited for Pali was worth it. Pali was amazingly long lived, even if it WASN'T January, and Pali spent it's entire life close to the equator. It was insane how Pali was a category 2 hurricane almost at the equator. It was a shame that Pali got dissipated by the close encounter with the equator though, we could have seen Pali become a typhoon if it had survived. Even with that, Pali was a one-of-a-kind storm that was an epic start to the season. Isaac's prediction Doing it in 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%. *Pali - 0% - Not close to any land mass. *Agatha - 0% - " " *Blas - 0% - " " *Celia - 0% - " " *Darby - 0% - Insignificant damage. *Estelle - 0% - " " *Frank - 0% - " " *Georgette - 0% - " " *Howard - 0% - " " *Ivette - 0% - " " *Javier - 0% - Insignificant damage. *Kay - 0% - " " *Lester - ? *Mandeline - ? --Isaac829 00:10, August 30, 2016 (UTC) Post-season changes Well, TD One-E's TCR is out, so I'll add this here. Not much difference, if any. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, August 9, 2016 (UTC) :Estelle's is out, sadly no upgrade to hurricane status :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 11:56, September 16, 2016 (UTC)